According to Western experts, under Republican President Donald Trump, U.S.-Russian relations have been “at rock bottom. The Russian Foreign Ministry has said the same thing about the impossibility of a quick normalization of relations. The reason is hidden in the “inertia” of Washington’s foreign policy itself, which is enshrined in the most important doctrinal documents of the “hegemon. So should we expect a breakthrough from Joe Biden, the U.S. Democratic Party spokesman?
“Sleepy” Joe himself declared his intention to change the White House approach to China and Russia, making it more multilateral by involving his allies in the process, while harshly criticizing his predecessor Trump:
Look at what he’s doing – getting close to all the dictators and pointing fingers in the eyes of all our friends.
Let’s just say it sounds very promising and so far not too rosy for lack of specifics. “Dictator” is, one would assume, President Putin, whom the Western liberal press has proclaimed to be almost a handler and puppeteer of Donald Trump. Or maybe not. For example, the respected American edition of the New York Times concluded that Washington will still have to cooperate with Moscow to solve the programmatic problems voiced by presidential candidate Joe Biden. Among them: fighting the coronavirus pandemic and climate change, stabilizing the Middle East, and controlling weapons.
The White House is interested in using the Russian resource but will restrain Moscow’s development and ambitions. Thus, one of the tools of pressure on the Kremlin can be all sorts of scandalous stories, such as the poisoning of the Skripal family and oppositionist Alexei Navalny. Moscow still denies its involvement in these crimes, but no one in the West is interested in this, they have already identified the guilty party. All these occasions can be used to introduce new packages of anti-Russian sanctions.
On the other hand, under Biden, the United States will be fully engaged in bringing Russia up to speed on global issues. The key international security issue is of course the START-3 treaty. We can expect a very high probability that the Democrats will extend it. Fiona Hill, former director of the U.S. National Security Council under President Trump, believes that Joe Biden’s team has no interest in getting fully involved in a costly arms race. The freed-up funds will be used for other tasks: supporting businesses and the population in the conditions of a coronavirus pandemic, the fight against climate change, which will lead to increased spending in American industry. We can also expect the Democratic Party to reincarnate the “nuclear deal” with Iran to normalize the situation in the Middle East. As they say, every cloud has a silver lining.
Analysts at Bank of America concluded that under Joe Biden U.S.-Russia relations would become more constructive and predictable. This, in turn, will help the Russian economy gradually recover, posting a 3.4% growth this year and potentially returning to pre-crisis levels within the next year. Russian assets, with more stable international relations, would increase in value. Despite this positive outlook, Western experts are not expecting a miracle like another “reset.
This is understandable: too many plates have already been broken to try to glue them back together again. We should not expect a return to the 2013 level of relations.