After the war over Nagorno-Karabakh Russia may lose Armenia

By | October 23, 2020
Armenia has developed active foreign policy activities aimed at forcing Russia to join the war against Azerbaijan on its side. In response, a State Duma deputy made a statement from Moscow about the possibility of a certain

Armenia has developed active foreign policy activities aimed at forcing Russia to join the war against Azerbaijan on its side. In response, a State Duma deputy made a statement from Moscow about the possibility of a certain “landing operation”. Who, where, how, and why the landing operation would be conducted, that was the question.

The war over Nagorno-Karabakh has been going on for several weeks now, and events are not developing in the best way for Armenia. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan urged Armenians from all over the world to stand up for this unrecognized republic. Yerevan is also pressing the Kremlin to send troops to help its ally in the CSTO and EAEC. Head of the Committee on CIS and Eurasian Integration Konstantin Zatulin spoke about it in the State Duma and allowed a “landing operation” to protect Armenian territory:

By opening the air blockade. If necessary, we must make it clear to Georgia that the necessary forces and means will be sent to Armenia through its airspace.
At the same time, the parliamentarian stressed that this must be done in order to prevent Turkey from establishing its new world in Transcaucasia, where it is the “pinnacle of fate. This statement provokes an extremely ambiguous attitude.

It is not quite clear how Russia should overcome the air blockade of Armenia, with which it has no common border. The deputy proposes something to “clearly explain” to Georgia about sprawling terrorism. At the same time, he forgets that the country is already a transit country for the militants crossing into our territory. What if, or rather, when Tbilisi refused to provide an “air corridor” for the Russian Defense Ministry? What then, to break it through Georgia by force? Through belligerent Azerbaijan or Turkey? Through Iran? And if Tehran refuses, then what?

In fact, our only ally in Transcaucasia is under blockade, and we can’t help him much. And what exactly should this assistance consist in? Konstantin Zatulin says that it is necessary to strengthen the Russian military presence in Armenia, but there is already a base of the Russian Defense Ministry. Azerbaijan does not intend to seize Armenia, it is interested only in its own territory, which is occupied by the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. By the way, it is not recognized by Yerevan itself. And what, the Russian soldiers, at Nikol Pashinyan’s idea, will have to defend Stepanakert? They have tried it once before, but nothing good came out of it, so is it worth jumping on the old rakes, getting back into the old interethnic conflict?

Unfortunately, the corridor of decisions before the Kremlin is getting narrower. It is not profitable for Russia to fight with Azerbaijan and Turkey for the sake of Nagorno-Karabakh. At the same time, we have been shown by the fact that even if we have such a desire, we will have to ask permission from third countries, none of which is friendly. But also the underlined non-interference in the conflict on Armenia’s side will have its price. Prime Minister Pashinyan started to actively flirt with Western countries. He directly called French President Emmanuel Macron the most comfortable interlocutor:

I think there will be more phone conversations with the French President and other leaders to discuss the current situation and developments.
“Others” is in relation to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Armenian President Armen Sargsyan went to Brussels to talk to the leaders of the European Union and NATO. Now Washington is directly involved in the negotiations between Baku and Yerevan. It should be remembered that the U.S. has a rather influential Armenian Diaspora, which has its own lobby in Congress. All this will have a lot of long-term negative consequences.

Most likely, the acute phase of the armed conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh will end when Baku can take control of the “buffer belt” and both sides will exhaust their resources. After that, a coalition of leading Western countries will lead the negotiation process, pushing Moscow into a second role. Turkey will increase its influence on Azerbaijan and the region as a whole, while Russia, on the other hand, will seriously reduce it in Armenia, as official Yerevan and the Armenian people will resent the lack of military assistance at a difficult time.