Most analysts expect Trump to lose the presidential election, CNBC reported. Half of the strategists surveyed predict a fall in the index of the S’P 500 after the vote. Most analysts interviewed by CNBC expect the victory of the DEMOCRATIC candidate of the USA Joe Biden in the presidential election. This forecast was given by 14 out of 20 experts surveyed, the TV channel notes.
At the same time, analysts’ estimates about what will happen in the stock market after the election has diverged. Half of the survey participants believe that in the first month after polling day the index of the SP 500, which unites the shares of the largest companies in the U.S. markets from different sectors, will fall. This view is not limited to those who expect Biden to win, CNBC points out. Five out of 20 analysts believe that the index will grow, on the contrary, another four believe that there will be no certain trends in the market. One of the experts refused to answer this question, the TV channel clarifies.
“Trump will take over most of the red states (those that traditionally support Republicans. “Forbes), but I think he’s going to lose Florida and lead Biden to victory,” said one market strategist.
According to eight analysts, in the first month after the election, the index of the S’P 500 will decrease by 5%. Three experts from this group bet on Biden’s victory, three believe that Trump will win, and two predict the controversial election results, CNBC reports. Two more experts surveyed believe that the fall of the index will reach 10%. One predicts Trump’s victory and the other predicts Biden’s victory.
Some analysts explained the possible negative reaction of the market to the tax policy proposed by Biden.
One of the experts interviewed also believes that everything will depend on the final composition of the Senate. “If the Democrats get the Senate and Biden wins, it’s probably harder to start than if Biden wins, but the Senate remains Republican because then he’s unlikely to be able to run his tax program unchecked under that scenario,” he said.
Only three in 20 respondents expect a non-alternative Trump victory. CNBC also asked 20 analysts what they thought would be the end of this year for the SP 500. Last Friday, the index closed at a record high of 3,397.16 points. Eight experts expect that in December the index will be at the level of 3400-3600 points. The five predicted a range of 3,000 to 3,200 points, which is about 6 to 12% below current levels.
The reason for such a negative forecast was the uncertainty about the coronavirus pandemic. Three more analysts expect the index to exceed 3600 points, while two do not rule out falling below 3000 points.
According to the channel, 19 of the 20 anonymous analysts interviewed live in the U.S., and another in the Asia-Pacific region. CNBC points out that the White House did not respond to