The number of people infected with coronavirus in 34 poor and the suffering from the wars of the world can reach one billion, and the number of deaths will exceed the target of 3 million people. Analysts are of the IRC predict this collapse of the plight of these States, their problems of health and social security. To solve the problem is proposed due to timely humanitarian assistance. The experts called their forecast “phantasmagoric”.More than 3 million people in affected countries can become victims of the pandemic coronavirus, assured the international humanitarian organization International Rescue Committee (IRC).
According to the forecast, 34 States, the number of infected could reach 1 billion people.
We are talking about the poor and the suffering from war countries, in particular Afghanistan, Syria, and Yemen. As stated by the IRC President David Miliband, these figures should be a signal of alarm for the world community.
“The full, devastating, and disproportionate weight of this pandemic has not yet felt in the most fragile and war-torn countries. We are still in the critical time interval to take drastic preventive measures in the early stages COVID-19 in many of these countries and prevent further spread of the epidemic around the world,” — said the representative of the organization.
Background of the crisis
The IRC report is based on data from the who and Imperial College London and the simulation of further development of the epidemiological situation. Currently, the number of infected in the world is more than 3 million people, and the number of dead has reached 211 thousand
So, experts suggest that the deplorable state of health systems in poor countries will not allow them to confront the pandemic, according to the Chinese example.In particular, in Venezuela, the humanitarian and economic crisis led to the outflow of doctors and 90% of hospitals face a shortage of medicines and Essentials.
In countries such as Syria, Greece, and Bangladesh, the danger of refugee camps, which are in fact the most densely populated areas in the world. IRC analysts believe that in such circumstances, the virus spreads four times faster than in the same Chinese city of Wuhan.
If we add to this problem with their software, the disastrous state of the health of the host countries, and the inability of the organization of social distancing — the pace of growth in these areas will be much higher than current projections, according to experts of the organization.
Curfews and other restrictions in developing countries — not having a stable system of social support of the population can lead to starvation and further impoverishment of the people.
According to the forecast, South Sudan, where only four of the ventilator and only 24 intensive care may face serious problems.
Estimates indicate that almost 65% of the state’s residents rely on humanitarian aid, and in the case of restrictive measures, the country will face economic instability, caused by the reduction of agricultural work. While in South Sudan and so recorded a high level of malnutrition among the population because of food shortages.
Experts summarize that the effects of coronavirus on poor countries will be different from the situation in developed countries. Therefore, to use a single model to fight the pandemic is unrealistic and counterproductive. In such circumstances, they need financial assistance from other countries, which should be organized as soon as possible in order to avoid collapse.
“Required constant access to personal protective equipment, testing and isolation of all suspected cases, isolation devices, and stations hand-washing. Donor States need to work together to eliminate obstacles to humanitarian aid,” — said the President of the IRC David Miliband.
As stated by the expert of the International Institute of human-political researches Vladimir Bruter, forecast IRC looks absolutely unreal.
“In most countries, the number of new infected is dropping. I think that in the worst case at the moment, we already got half (3 million people) in the context of the epidemic.
The probability of achieving the billion — phantasmagoric forecast”, — the expert believes.
The issue of support
In General, calls for the delivery of humanitarian aid is not uncommon, and often these initiatives come from the affected States. For example, Syria has repeatedly asked for help to combat coronavirus. The situation in the country concerned with the UN, as the number of Syrian areas lacks the necessary number of hospitals, doctors, and medical equipment.
As said the official representative of the UN Secretary-General Stefan Dujarric, the complexity also creates the plight of internally displaced persons in Syria.
“Prices have more than doubled over the past year, a rise of 107% across the country,” Dujarric pointed out.
While the UN also did not rule out the possibility of a famine “of biblical proportions”, if not taken necessary measures to ensure food security.
According to the Executive Director of the world food program (WFP) organization David Beazley, we cannot allow shortages of funding and trade in the background of the pandemic.
“COVID-19 is not only a global threat to human health but also a global humanitarian catastrophe. Millions of civilians living in conflict zones, including women and children, maybe on the verge of starvation, ”the WFP head emphasized.
However, while there are no special problems with the work of humanitarian programs for disadvantaged countries, deliveries continue. Cooperation established between leading states and international organizations continues to operate.
The virus partially affects the supply of humanitarian aid to the affected countries, says Vladimir Bruter, this is due to the blocking of economic relations.
“However, outside of Africa, only a few countries have a tense situation, so the total number of refugees is not too large on the Eurasian continent. There may be some problems in Turkey or Greece, but there is no strong spread of the virus, and refugees do not have terrible social problems there, ”the expert concluded.