To ensure that the Washington — Beijing is the tariff war, which periodically comes to the brink of a full-fledged financial war with the mutual freeze of assets and other measures causing serious economic damage, the world is generally accustomed to.
However, two epidemics — coronavirus and accusations against China, accompanied by attempts to “hang” on China the obligation to compensate US, UK, or Germany trillions of dollars of economic damage, and make you think about, do not approach the world to military confrontation.
Reuters published an exclusive material, which stated that the main nerve center of the Chinese national security system made up of analytical reports, the essence of which is the need to prepare for the real (not “cold” and “hot”) war with the United States of America.
British Agency refers to its sources in Beijing that supposedly saw the document, but refused to transfer even portions of it for reasons of personal security. However, even a brief retelling of the ribbon, the authoritative Agency was enough to cause a shock in the Western information field: after all, the real war is not the most optimistic scenario on the background of the pandemic.
It was possible to write off this infopovod on the rich imagination of London agencies, but there are two aspects that hinder to do it. First, history teaches us that great empires often like to divert attention from its own population crises by directing the people’s anger to external enemies, for the struggle (probably armed) with whom the nation can rally even around a relatively unpopular leader. Second, if we discard the unnecessary politeness, it can be stated that wage war against the background of the pandemic is quite American, and the principle of “no crisis should go to waste” is quite suitable to describe the style of thinking of the strategists in Washington.
And indeed: China is not Iraq and not Iran, and a serious enemy to fight which will require very serious efforts, and to make a full war or at least severe financial war (with sanctions “Iranian model”) was supported by a significant part of society, just does not work. So, the epidemic of the coronavirus (which is happy for the “Washington hawks” coincidence was first discovered in China) can be perceived supporters of a tough anti-China line as a kind of unique opportunity, the repetition of which will not and which you need to use the most rapid and decisive manner.
In these circumstances, to take into account the risk that Washington will “goddamn fists” in the form of carrier battle groups is a very rational approach on the part of the Chinese administrative elite, whose direct duties include the relief of risks to national security.
If the sources of Reuters had actually seen such a document and it is true, the very fact of its existence — is not a sign of paranoia (in which the Chinese “bezopasnikov” blame the Western media), and let pessimistic, but rather a realistic view of the American political elite. The latter may well find that even the risk of a nuclear conflict with China — an acceptable price in order to eliminate the main threat to American hegemony.
Paraphrased by Reuters indicates that Beijing sees the rise of anti-Chinese sentiment, which is very skillfully fueled by the USA as one of the main factors contributing to the risk of hot conflict.
“The report presented at the beginning of last month the Ministry of state security Beijing higher leadership, including President XI Jinping, it was concluded that global anti-Chinese sentiment reached its highest level (since) the crackdown on Tiananmen square in 1989, sources said (Reuters). As a result, Beijing after pandemic will face a wave of anti-Chinese sentiment with the United States as a leader and should be prepared in (for implementation) the worst-case scenario for an armed confrontation between two world powers.”
The American edition of Vox formulated the conclusion is simpler and more straightforward: “China believes that a response to (the actions of China during the epidemic) coronavirus can lead to full-scale war with the United States.”
It is unlikely that the States now send shock carrier battle groups to attack China. Practice shows that before any power conflict is first executed sophisticated media ritual, in which a specific country is declared the focus of world evil and the world is presented, or a vial of “white powder” or “witnesses” of some terrible crimes against humanity committed another “authoritarian regime” or, at worst, some kind of scandal in which “hail like” was attended by representatives of the state, which is as it should be a bomb or at least a “strangling sanctions”.
Potential points for military escalation with China abound. It and Hong Kong, and Taiwan, and numerous disputed Islands (with hydrocarbon deposits) in the South China sea. If necessary, the list of alleged crimes of China, us diplomats may well add even the medieval European plague, declaring it to be the forerunner of modern pandemics — the world’s media promoted and more absurd the theses in support of aggressive American foreign policy.
Perhaps the supporters of a more sober approach to the surrounding reality were still able to convince the “Washington hawks” that a full-fledged war with China is a very bad idea, though, due to the fact that it’s a nuclear power and the consequences of such conflict are the most difficult.
But the chances that someone will be able to stop the ice rink sanctions against Beijing if such a rink will still run, not appear to be very high. If you start all-out sanctions war between the US and China, the current economic system of the planet, with its global financial flows and global production chains will not be over. The results of this diplomatic and economic conflict you can try to predict and some American experts already doing it:
“<...> in spite of all the efforts of the fighters of the ideological front in Beijing and Washington, the harsh truth is that China and the United States are likely to emerge from this crisis significantly weakened. No new Pax Sinica or Pax Americana updated will not grow on the ruins. Rather, both powers would be weakened both at home and abroad. The result will continue a slow but steady drift toward international anarchy in everything from international security to trade and measures to combat the pandemic. No (global) regulator and various forms of rampant nationalism replaced the order and cooperation. Thus, the chaotic nature of the national and global response to the pandemic is a warning about what can happen on a broader scale,” writes the authoritative journal Foreign Policy, which sees a future world conflict and world anarchy.
It is possible that the winners in this war do not. But American hegemony, such a conflict is clearly not worried in any event.