Called sure signs of preparation leading countries to a nuclear conflict. After the recession, the economic crisis in the world may begin large-scale military conflict. To such a conclusion came from a well-known journalist, broadcaster, political consultant, the participant and the repeated winner of intellectual games Anatoly Wasserman.
In his opinion, the world is now experiencing a “Second great depression”, which has officially moved to a new level. The journalist reminded that this week the Federal reserve system (FRS) in response to the collapse of the securities market has reduced the key rate to a historic low of 0 to 0.25% per year. In fact, explained Wasserman, the fed started to print money and give out their bankers and owners of large corporations, so that they could close the financial gaps cheaply. “Supercheap dollar creates global inflation. Next — the poverty of the whole planet, on a cheap earn money only the rich. We own experience to know that the pyramid will collapse sooner or later, but not necessarily. No matter what trigger is the destruction of OPEC or epidemic. The gun already attached to the head and the spring is cocked!” — said Wasserman. However, he said that the “First great depression” stopped the Second world war. Then the slaughter came undone because of the capital that has exhausted opportunities to earn and brought half of humanity to starvation. Income has been redistributed and built by the current financial system at the cost of tens of millions of lives.
“All according to Marx. The world crisis following world conflict. And we are still at the very beginning of this journey. And make all the same mistakes! On countless zombies away economic resources, capable of sound economic management to bring considerable benefits,” says Wasserman. And indeed, the world economic situation is getting worse almost every hour. Due to the increase in the number of people infected with coronavirus, some States can stop industrial production, oil prices do not go from the zone of strongest over the past half-century of turbulence, the demand for hydrocarbons is falling, and a single global trade Finance space is bursting at the seams. However, a member-correspondent of the Russian Academy of Military Sciences (EQUALLY) Vladimir Kozin believes that some kind of action, clearly provoking the world into a global armed conflict of the Second world war, will happen automatically. First, the classical state of the “nuclear five” to realize what can cause the use of having a nuclear Arsenal. Secondly, the country’s so-called “core four”, that is actually possessing nuclear weapons — India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea — are well aware that, despite the accumulation and modernization of nuclear weapons, its use in any form can end very badly. The first blow was immediately followed by a second and subsequent “return” wave.
Running this, the “missile-nuclear” chain reaction will end in total destruction. — There are fears that Anatoly Wasserman is baseless? Not quite. First of all, one can not discount that the possibility of using nuclear weapons the United States after the adoption in 2018, President of Donald trump’s new nuclear doctrine, has increased dramatically. In the old doctrine advocated by his predecessor, Barack Obama was 6 bases, and the new 14. Whereas in the nuclear doctrine of such bases remains only two. In addition, the current American administration in the face of the President and the government of the United States once again refused to confirm the wording of Ronald Reagan regarding the use of nuclear weapons. — What kind of wording do you mean? — The phrase that a nuclear war could not be waged because it will be winners. I want to pay particular attention to the fact that the original authorship of this Maxim belongs to the same protege of the Republican party as the current head of America Donald trump. And then it was supplemented and strengthened similar statements of the first President of the USSR Mikhail Gorbachev.
Russia, as we know, remains true to this formulation, but the U.S. side in response to made in October 2019 offer it again in the new official documents to make it why-that flatly refused. The US administration strongly resisted. And this, for example, personally I have is some suspicion that nuclear war is still possible. And it can not “sleep”. There are a number of factors that testify to this. For example, the willingness of the Pentagon to use nuclear warheads of low power, that is, from 5 kilotons and less in different situations and at the discretion of Donald trump. Or, say, the capacity of the means of delivery of nuclear warheads in the “forward-based”, that is, close to those States that are not allies of the United States. It also says strategic setting about the destruction of ICBMs of other States “prior to launch”. Reminded of this, and the military exercises of the United States that begin with conventional weapons, but ends with a conditional activation of nuclear arms. — Maybe not all hopeless from America? Because restricted the Senate’s powers trump the use of military force in Iran after the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani. Maybe in this situation, the American administration will show prudence? Position trump’s position and the American government in this matter is in principle one and the same. What do you say trump is having on the U.S. Constitution exclusive powers and will do the US government, all Ministers, state secretaries and so on. After all, those people who do not share the position of President, trump just got fired. Among the dismissed were the Minister of defense, and secretaries of state, that is, in the Russian context, the Ministers of Foreign Affairs. And as much as it changed the heads of the national security Council of the United States! Besides this moment whether there are still any nuances, directly or indirectly confirming this suspicion?
The second negative and a specific symptom of serious military preparations in the nuclear field — the problem of non-use of nuclear weapons in the first strike. This topic is really old, and in the eighties of the last century, the debate on it began the Soviet Union. Then it wasn’t. But now the Americans in the new “trompowsky” nuclear strategy refused to accept the concept of non-use of nuclear weapons in the first strike. Nothing good from the US that the world promises. The third sign is the refusal of Washington to support the Russian-Chinese project on the prevention of placement of weapons in outer space in principle, and not to deploy him there in the first particular. Fourth — the presence in the nuclear doctrine of the United States, as I said, the provisions on the use of nuclear warheads of low power of 5 kilotons or less. American submarines are already re-equipped them with this in mind, the transformation of missiles of other classes. Interestingly, of course, how will we behave our delegation at the summit of the “nuclear five”, the meeting of the States permanent members of the UN Security Council, which can occur during the regular session of the UN General Assembly in September 2020 in New York. But so far no signs that the United States will lead yourself out there in a constructive and business-like are not visible. Facts are facts, and to the Treaty on the elimination of intermediate and shorter-range missiles (INF Treaty) they are not going to come back, the Russian moratorium on non-deployment of new intermediate-range missiles in areas where there is still not support. To renew the Contract start-3 do not wish, as their prolongation it for some additional period of time strictly linked to the participation of China, which shows no practical interest, since it has far fewer nuclear warheads than the U.S. side. Still, 13 remain unresolved problems in the sphere of arms control between Moscow and Washington. Moreover, such a situation is the fault of Washington and to this day there is no indication that prior to the aforesaid meeting will be, finally, the problem of renewal of the contract start-3, which ends in February 2021.
And, of course, we must not forget that the Americans broke the Iranian nuclear deal, and is now continuing to openly violate the first two articles of the Treaty on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons for almost 70 years in Europe while maintaining its tactical nuclear weapons. But some of them are able to solve strategic nuclear objectives, being mounted on heavy strategic bombers. By the way, American heavy strategic aircraft have long since mastered the European airspace, including military aerodrome of the Baltic States. And even participated in the training throwing bombs. — So, in any case, the initiator of the military conflict will be the USA? Is it possible in this case to suggest which units will fight against each other? — The United States, of course, the main violin in the Alliance. This is the main conductor of the NATO, especially in the military-political sphere. So they create any military alliances it makes no sense. Although the national security strategy of America agreed in December 2017 at the trump, it does not exclude the possibility of creating new alliances with other States. But, of course, the main emphasis is on strengthening NATO: the diversification of weapons, the deployment of new types of heavy weapons almost across the globe, the increase in the share of each participant of NATO in the formation of the military budget of the unit at the level of 2% of GDP by 2024, and after that date — even at 4% of GDP. What, in fact, Trump said on the sidelines of the Brussels NATO summit in 2018.
So far, however, of the 29 NATO countries, only nine States have reached a stated two-percent level, as evidenced by the new annual report NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg about the activities of this military unit in 2019. But Trump, I think, rest are all the same on this issue. — Russia who can count? — Russia needs to strengthen the collective security Treaty (CSTO) as a military threat in the world has increased significantly compared to the period of détente and the reduction of international tension in the eighties of the last century. And this threat has a combined nature. It is not only on conventional and nuclear weapons, but also on high-precision hypersonic weapons, global system of missile defense and military “development” of outer space by developing space strike weapons. Note: the last three components have no international legal restrictions. This can cause new types of “arms races”. — And whether the threat of a military conflict, if not disappear, then at least to go in the opposite direction? — To ensure that the upcoming summit of the “nuclear five” during the UN General Assembly in September 2020 will be able to reverse both the old and the new “arms race”, I treat with great skepticism. If such a meeting fails, the supporters of the solution to the problems of arms control, especially on a nuclear missile, there will be only one way: to appeal to the international community in general, and clearly to explain to him that the present civilization is in a dangerous state. This situation appears to be even worse than the global impact of the current insidious coronavirus.