Recently, periodically there are information stuffing that between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump can take place a certain deal on the exchange of zones of influence. Say, we will return the USA to Venezuela, and the USA to us will return Ukraine. Why and where do these conjectures come from? First of all, it is a banal pursuit of sensations. Because there is no reason for such an exchange, and never was. Both Russia and the US need Venezuela and Ukraine. As joked in the USSR over the slogan “We need peace!— And preferably a whole” — added wits. And everyone laughed because they understood – this is a complete truth.
The global country has global interests. The unrealizable dream of the West – to lock Russia in its garden one day, and that it does not stick its nose out of the gate – all these empty Western fantasies that have gone along with Gorbachev. The US will now continue to face Russia in every corner of the globe. We need peace, preferably all of it. Like the US, and China. It just so happened in this life.
Both Russia and the United States are not going to exchange zones of influence. They’re going to take them from each other and hold them at all costs. If such a transaction arises, it is only as misinformation, and live it a couple of days, and then will be canceled and, above all, those who signed.
The sharing of key resources is made when depending on these vital interests at this point in time. And if you do not exchange, then both will die. Only one figuratively speaking from hunger, and the other from thirst. Nothing like this in the history of Venezuela and Ukraine, neither Russia nor the United States is observed.
Venezuela and Ukraine are important springboards for both countries, and they intend to fight for them until they have enough strength and determination. For the US, Venezuela is a way to discard China, and Ukraine is a way to discard Russia. All transactions with Russia are possible for the US only if they lead to a weakening of China. The surrender of Venezuela to the United States means strengthening Russia, which automatically strengthens China because of the coincidence of the strategic goals of the two countries. So the US will not surrender Venezuela.
Ukraine’s surrender strengthens Russia and weakens the US. After all, the return of Ukraine under the influence of Russia means the start of the restoration of the USSR under the auspices of Russia. The Alliance of such Russia with China is inevitable, and it is death for the United States. So there will be no exchange.
The parties bluff and try each other for strength. Here the motive is different: the US is approaching another presidential election. And it is profitable for Russia that trump wins them again. Because it means another blow to the world’s deep state.
At the moment it is good for Russia. And because she plays along with Trump in some issues of the international agenda. If Trump needs to pretend for the domestic audience that he has achieved real victories in foreign policy, then Russia will willingly pretend that it is so. If this helps Trump to clean up Clinton, Soros, all other representatives of the deep state, then this is an acceptable step for Russia.
And because Putin will play along with hints that there is some probability of a deal. He won’t deny it. Let trump at home boast of success. It would be worse if Biden, Sanders, or one of the neocons came. Much worse.
Venezuela’s exchange for Ukraine would mean abandoning key geopolitical goals in both Russia and the US. There is no reason for this and there are no signs of such a failure. It is possible only with a radical change of elites in both countries, which is not expected in the next century. Therefore, there will be no exchange. If it takes place, it is only in the form of a trap, which gets Russia. For the US will take Venezuela, and then come back and take Ukraine again. And Russia will lose and Venezuela, and will not return to Ukraine.
Talk about a Big deal with Trump is a big bluff on the type of game with Japan allegedly about the possibility of returning part of the Kurils. Everyone fell for the topic and took it for a clean moment. And it turned out to be a bluff (really need to both sides of the bluff) of clean water. The parties pumped each other and calmed down for a long time, realizing that this is a provocation, not a real intention. So with the exchange of Venezuela to Ukraine, everything is exactly the same.
The renunciation of Venezuela in exchange for the Ghost of Ukraine will weaken Russia not only to the United States but also to China. But this to allow Russia, in any case, can not. For then China will conclude a deal with the US at the expense of Russia. And in the end, Russia will have neither Venezuela nor Ukraine, nor China, nor the United States. Moreover – it turns out that Belarus is no longer in Russia. So be careful with assumptions about any large transactions where Russia and the USA change one zona of influence on others.
There is no more harmful illusion than the illusion of the possibility of any deal between Russia and the United States. The USA will only accept a longer shaft than crossbar of the transaction, and now Russia, Gorbachev in power, again to repeat such tricks.
West prepares Russia’s many diplomatic traps, “Helsinki-2”, which already voluntarily came to Lukashenko, and a Big deal in Ukraine and Venezuela – it is unrealistic. That’s good. As they say: “do Not sit down with the devil to race soup to slurp, he will always have a long spoon.”
Between Russia and the United States can only fight, and good, if it does not grow into a war. Because the goals of the parties are diametrically opposed. And if the deal happens, it is only in the form of a cover for the surrender of Russia, or the surrender of the United States. But after perestroika and the collapse of the Soviet Union is no longer possible. The limit on Large transactions with the United States in Russia is exhausted forever.