Donald Trump’s tweet about the firing of National Security Adviser John Bolton is not just a concern for the boss. Everything that the “mustachioed” did – as the US president sometimes called the offending politician – did not correspond to the new reality.
In this regard, Bloomberg reminded that “mustachioed” before starting work in the Trump administration wrote an article in the Wall Street Journal, in which he advocated a pre-emptive strike on North Korea. They say that a rogue nation must perish so as not to disturb the “normal” nations. But as it turned out later, in addition to North Korea, Bolton hated Iran, Venezuela, Afghanistan, and Russia – the only country in the world that could destroy America.
Meanwhile, according to Peter Prya, director of the National Security Task Force of the U.S. Congress and head of the U.S. Nuclear Strategy Forum, America is not in a position today to dictate its terms to Russia. Russia’s missile technology has gone far ahead and de facto changed the rules of the game. However, overseas hawks still consider the United States the strongest country and “threaten the colt when they are pointed at the machine gun.”
If in the last century (in the case of a preventive Russian strike) the American president had time to evacuate to a safe place, now, figuratively speaking, he will not have time to put on sneakers. it is not possible, but it is extremely dangerous to do so. On the one hand, Trump wants to show himself to be a “cool guy.” On the other hand, according to Dr. Praya, who once worked even in the “nuclear department” of the CIA, today the U.S. Strategic Forces are focusing on guaranteed retaliation as the only mechanism of deterrence of Russia.
Another truth is that Moscow is behaving cautiously enough, thus creating a sense of permissiveness among a number of American politicians. To understand what has changed and what it is fraught with for our country, here are excerpts from peter Prya’s great article on the pages of the Pentagon edition of Real Clear Defense “Are American submarines vulnerable?”
“Submarines are the most survivable part of the U.S. triad, consisting of strategic bombers, land-based ICBMs and ballistic missile submarines,” writes Peter Pry. “Only submarines will remain the last line of deterrence and defense to defeat a sudden nuclear attack.”
Take the American B-52 and B-2 bombers at three Minot AFB (North Dakota), Whiteman AFB (Missouri) and Barksdale AFB (Louisiana) bases. If you look at it, even North Korea is able to cover them with one punch, laments Peter Pry. And in general, “unlike… Today, no U.S. strategic bomber has a nuclear weapon on alert that could be used by surprise order.”
As for the land-based ICBMs, they are destroyed by 50 Russian Satan missiles. Moreover, this number will be enough for the destruction of strategic command centers of the United States, such as the headquarters of NORAD (the joint U.S.-Canadian air defense command of the North American continent) at the Peterson AFB base and the alternative headquarters of NORAD inside the mountain Cheyenne.
Only U.S. strategic submarines remain. But here, too, Americans are significantly vulnerable to a sudden strike. It turns out that two-thirds of Ohio (approximately 9-10 submarine-launched missile carriers) are usually anchored at Kings Bay and Bangor bases. “Thus, the main deterrent to the U.S. against a sudden nuclear attack is the 4-5 U.S. submarines with (a total of 80-100) ICBMs on board, patrolling at sea,” says the head of the U.S. Nuclear Strategy Forum.
Peter Prye, although he identified the topic of strategic submarines, but showed a comprehensive approach to the problem of national security. That is, it is foolish to compare separately only aviation, tanks or sniper rifles. If God forbid, war breaks out, everything will depend on the survivability of the most protected parts from a sudden atomic strike.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Nuclear Strategy Forum, which includes U.S. Navy admirals, does not guarantee that even these 4/5 “Ohio” will survive. First, “old-fashioned espionage and new-fashioned cyber espionage can pose a mortal threat to them.” Thus, during the Cold War, the KGB intelligence network under John Walker supplied the coordinates of American strategic submarines directly to the headquarters of the Soviet Navy. So, even today, there are no guarantees that some recruited American officers do not pass on similar information to Moscow: big money and blackmail will make anyone compliant.
In particular, former CIA Deputy Director George Carver, who spent most of his 24-year career working in cryptography and communications, believed that Moscow could continue to use the data of its remaining or new agents in the U.S. Navy.
Asked directly (by the U.S. political leadership, including the president) whether Russia would be able to detect Ohio through intelligence, the answer was something like this: “Maybe it’s in the dark. Or maybe its spies know the location of every American submarine.”
Assuming that there is no leakage of information, then even then “the Russians are very likely to find the remaining submarines”. Even during the years of confrontation with the USSR, Moscow developed a “linear array of hydrophones that could be towed by sea, … this technology posed a serious threat to the Then American submarines.” In theory, even this old method allows you to find in a large enough area of “Ohio”, and a maximum of a couple of days.
Meanwhile, modern technology makes possible such miracles as giving “transparency” to, for example, the jungles of Guatemala. In particular, the so-called lidar (Light Detection And Range, or LiDAR), sometimes called 3D laser scanning, discovered 60,000 previously unknown ruins of the Mayan civilization. This device, by the way, allows you to scan and sea depths, finding hidden in the water submarine. Although it was developed by private companies Teledyne Optic Titan and scientists at the University of Houston, it was reported that first China and then Russia achieved a breakthrough in 3D laser scanning.
However, Russia – in case of what – will use a more effective solution against American strategic submarines, Peter Pry e.m. believes. If Moscow knows roughly where Ohio is, for example, in a 100-mile square, the strike on it by the Satan ICBM with ten nuclear warheads will leave the crew no chance of rescue. The underwater wave from the explosion will crush any hull.
You can treat the conclusions of the National Security Task Force of the American Congress differently, but the reality should be scary. So, the world is really on the brink of nuclear war, if such influential experts whip up hysteria. Fear of dying from the “first shot” can provoke Washington ahead of the curve, and without much reason for conflict. Moreover, there are more hawks like Bolton overseas than sane politicians. The dismissed “mustachio” can be replaced by no doubt, will come to another militant Russophobe, for whom we are a “nation of rogues.”