North Korea is back in the spotlight. No, Pyongyang has not launched another missile or conducted a nuclear test — the situation can be much more serious. On April 15, Kim Jong-UN (perhaps for the first time in his cadence) missed the birthday celebrations of the grandfather — founder of the DPRK, Kim Il-Sung.
It is clear that there are no press releases from Pyongyang that were not present on this topic — but South Korean media with links to their sources report that the North Korean leader could not attend because he was in the hospital due to problems with the cardiovascular system.
These data are not officially confirmed by anyone — even in Seoul. The blue house (the residence of the head of South Korea) responds with phrases from the series “we don’t know anything, leave us all alone» “I can see why. President Moon Jae Ying has spent a lot of effort and nerves building a working relationship with Kim Jong-UN, and any speculation from high-ranking South Korean officials could be a serious blow to this relationship.
Not only the Blue house is silent, but also the White House. Usually, Donald Trump does not go into his pocket for a word, does not hesitate to be rude and insult his political opponents — but here he is rude only to CNN, saying that he does not trust the reports of journalists about Kim’s illness. He adds that he wishes his North Korean counterpart, with whom he has developed excellent relations, “good luck”.
Trump’s politeness is explained very simply
The US President really needs the leader of the DPRK to be alive, healthy, and adequate. Yes, Kim Jong-UN is a dictator. Yes, it threatens the United States (as well as its regional allies, Japan and South Korea) nuclear weapon.
However, the United States should really pray for the well-being of the North Korean leader, because his health problems can lead to serious problems for the health of the United States. And not just the United States. Now, amid rumors of Kim’s illness and possible death, experts have tried to look beyond the horizon and assess the consequences of this death.
And if these are experts, and not some frostbitten human rights activists, their verdict is almost the same — this death will not bring any positive results to North Korea, the United States, or other countries.
On the contrary, it will lead to serious internal disturbances in North Korea, a sharp increase in its aggressiveness, and will put off prospects for a peaceful solution to the North Korean nuclear problem solution, which is now jointly by Donald trump, Moon Jae In and Kim Jong-UN.
If someone is a fan of the Hollywood movie “The Interview” (about the murder of Kim Jong-UN by American journalists) and believes that after the dictator’s departure, North Korea will turn into a stable democracy, then they will be disappointed. The DPRK is an absolutist hereditary monarchy built on the most powerful, in a sense, the sacred cult of the leader’s personality.
In such a system, the leader’s passing away is always serious stress for the entire state and the power vertical. Her inheritance has never been without problems — and this is despite the fact that in both previous versions (after the death of the founder of the DPRK, Kim Il Sung in 1993 and his son Kim Jong Ira in 2011) there were active adult heirs, officially approved by the deceased leaders.
Kim Jong-un has no such heirs — his eldest child is about 10 years old. The older brother was killed on his orders, the middle brother has long been out of politics. A potential heir is called a sister, but a woman is unlikely to be able to gain absolute power in North Korean society. At the same time, there is no collective “crisis management” at the level of clans (as was the case in Turkmenistan after the death of Turkmenbashi I — Saparmurat Niyazov) or special services (like the Uzbek ones, who quickly took the country into their own hands after the departure of Islam Karimov) in the DPRK.
The entire management system is built under Kim Jong-UN, and any alternative horizontal self-organization is fraught with executions for its participants. Therefore, it is very likely that after the sudden departure of Kim Jong-UN North Korea is facing serious internal chaos — chaos that is always fraught with an increase in the aggressiveness of the state.
Without self-statements and jumps
And here we must not forget that we are not talking about herbivorous Sweden or even jumping Ukraine — we are talking about a country with a powerful army, a militarized population, and an extremely low threshold for perception of any external threat. To respond to this “threat”, we do not even need any provocative actions on the part of Seoul or Tokyo-the desire of the contender for the role of head of the DPRK to strengthen its position by demonstrating courage against the “damned capitalists” is enough.
And this demonstration may be more serious than the incident with the Corvette Cheongnan, torpedoed in 2010 by a North Korean submarine allegedly on the personal instructions of Kim Jong-UN, who was then the heir and just wanted to assert himself through this “bold” act. Yes, over 10 years, Kim Jong-UN’s official position has undergone serious evolution-from threats to the West and South Korea to direct cooperation, summit, and dialogues, even though serious differences remain. “If it were another President, we would now be at war with North Korea. Now we don’t have a war. We are not even close to it, ” Trump said. However, the unexpected departure of Kim Jong-UN may lead to this war.
The benefit of Kim Jong-UN is not only that he keeps the peace, but also that he helps the United States, South Korea, and the entire world solve the North Korean nuclear problem — and solves it in the only possible way. Not by voluntary or voluntary-forced denuclearization (both options are fantastic), and not by forcing the DPRK by force (fraught with a large war and hundreds of thousands of victims), but through economic reforms in the DPRK. Reforms that will gradually (very gradually) make North Korea a less aggressive country, focused not so much on survival in an aggressive external environment, but on the development of its economy and social sphere.
Such a state would be a much more responsible owner of atomic bombs than a cornered, wounded animal ready to throw itself at an opponent in a nuclear death jump. These reforms require a combination of a number of factors — not political will and the ability to analyze the prospects soberly, without ideological blinkers (which Kim Jong-UN has), but also a stable domestic and foreign policy situation.
That is why the White, Blue and other Great Houses of the Earth have left North Korea alone and strongly support Kim Jong-UN’s economic initiatives. The death of Kim Jong-UN will put an end to these initiatives, as well as force the United States and its allies to choose another, more dangerous, and costly solution.