Having received advice from the French president to voluntarily resign his post, Lukashenko was born with a satirical pamphlet, jokingly hinting that for his interest in Svetlana Tihanovskaya Emmanuel Makron will have to answer to his wife. Such spices are in Batya style, but now he has chosen the most unfortunate time to use them.
“Emmanuelle Makron pays too much attention to one of the former presidential candidates. Taking into account the fact that this ex-candidate is a lady, the French leader risks to get personal – at home”.
This advice “as an experienced politician – immature” Lukashenko gave to the French president in response to the call to voluntarily leave power. And this is the case when the author is recognized by style.
The text of the council was distributed by the press service of the Belarusian president, but there is little doubt that it is not the creative speechwriters’, but a “stiletto” from Batka himself. He likes rough analogies and transitions to personalities, he does not pocket and enriched Belarusian culture with numerous aphorisms and reservations, a noticeable part of which is devoted to women.
“Every dairymaid and pig has to go to the man’s bed washed”. That’s what the president said: “Every dairymaid and pig has to go to the man in the bed washed.
At the same time, he will not voluntarily leave power – this, according to Lukashenko, should be clear to everyone. Therefore, such advice will not be tolerated either at the domestic or international level. “Suck it”, as Lukashenko says to Makron, and taking into account all the circumstances of place and time, has the right to do so. It’s not his business, Macron.
However, Batya, as A.A. Milna’s Owl put it, clearly “miscalculated the graphite consumption. It would be more rational for him to confine himself to the first part of the answer to Paris, the one in which the “immature” Macron is asked to transfer power to the “yellow vests” through Lukashenko. This is quite tough, witty in its own way, and corresponds to the moment, while the transition to the topic of the French president’s personal life is a transition across the “red line” by any standards of diplomacy, which are valid even in the age of Tictocles and Charly Ebdo.
One can remember how categorical and unpleasant he is when he reacts to verbal interventions in his private life, for example, Vladimir Putin. Macron, one should think that such a reaction will also make him angry and will translate his conflict with Lukashenko from political into personal.
With all Batka’s arrogance, he seems to have to understand that in his circumstances it would be quite unsuitable. And now there is no other option but to prepare for an act of revenge, not from Macron, but from France as a whole.
Before the official Paris, the events in Belarus practically did not worry, which is not typical for official Paris. We are accustomed to accusing of interfering in other people’s affairs in the U.S. and from old memory to see for each world problem “ears” of Britain, although in their restlessness the French have long bypassed the British and in each barrel trying to become a plug – including in competition with the Anglo-Saxons for influence.
Sometimes it seems that Paris as a whole does not care what international projects to implement: to put an order in Mali or settle the Russian-Georgian conflict, to fight global warming, or to overthrow another “dictator”. The main thing is for everyone to see: France is still a great power and one of the main players in world politics.
It has now been forgotten that the leading role in igniting the fire of war in Syria and Libya was played not by Washington but by Paris. The fact that Lukashenko has not received the same attention and that the same significant resources have not been allocated to the fight against him (so far) is not an accident, but a consequence of the geopolitical vision of the French and their idea of the balance of power in Europe. They in the EU are the main supporters of a strategy that makes it better not to beat all pots with Batka, so as not to make his relations with Moscow irreplaceable.
Macron stands out from its predecessors with even greater foreign policy restlessness and actively competes with Merkel in this respect, but reacted to events in Belarus more than a week after the start of protests. A few more days later, Paris offered its mediation between the authorities and the opposition (almost on duty; mediation at the Elysees Palace seems to be offered to anyone), after which Lukashenko used a comparison with “yellow vests” for the first time.
That would be the end of it. Batka’s prosecutors in the EU were Lithuania and Poland, Germany was responsible for the common vector of extremely cautious decisions on Minsk, and French participation in the events, contrary to custom, was at the level of Portuguese.
And now Lukashenko risks making an enemy in the face of Macron, for which the French president has both personal and political reasons. The whole of France is aware of personal reasons: the president of the Fifth Republic is marked by painful ego and reverence for the topic of his family life.
As for political reasons, the request for a “reply” to Batka may already come from French society. The pride of the French, as a nation, is to become macro: they may not love the present master of the Elysian palace as a man and a politician, but they are hardly ready to accept that anyone speaks to the French president in such a boorish tone, especially “some Belarusian collective farmer”.
In this regard, it is not even important that Lukashenko’s joke was sexist, i.e. by the standards of modern France it is unacceptable and capable of causing a scandal in itself, beyond the bounds of big politics.
And it cannot be attributed to Lukashenko’s impulsiveness, to his signature spontaneity, to what he simply “gabbed”. The joke of the Belarusian president was transmitted in writing through official channels, while Makron gave his uninvited advice about his voluntary resignation not in a special statement, but when he gave interviews and answered journalists’ questions on a variety of topics.
What threatens this transition to the personality of the unrestrained Batka is a difficult question, if we talk about specifics. The point is that he could turn France from an unfriendly observer into an active participant of Belarusian events, ready to spend considerable resources to make Lukashenko pay for what he said.
Of course, it is not as expensive as Gaddafi and Assad paid because Paris’ ability to influence Belarus is purely theoretical. But if the punishment becomes economic and implies, for example, sanctions, it must be understood that in all the accounts of Batka in the current circumstances, one way or another, will have to pay Russia, forced to keep afloat the fodder of the closest ally.