Poland will take the chance to join Lithuania, writes the Belgian edition of Modern Diplomacy.
On July 28, the foreign ministers of Poland, Lithuania, and Ukraine announced the creation of the “Lublin Triangle” – a new format for cooperation between the countries. At the same time, Polish Minister Jacek Chaputovic made it clear that Poland is interested in such a state of affairs when weak states depend on stronger ones.
Lithuania has always been one of Poland’s most important geopolitical interests. Warsaw has long-standing territorial claims against Lithuania. In 1922-1939, a large part of modern Lithuania, including its capital Vilnius (then Vilna), was part of Poland. And the Poles still want to return these lands.
The Polish authorities intend to create conditions under which Vilnius will depend on Warsaw politically and even militarily. The last step in this process may be the unification of the territories under the pretext of confrontation with Russia. At least, Warsaw can at any time intensify such a discussion, which will lead to the accession to Poland at least part of Lithuania.
Perhaps the Poles are planning to recreate the Commonwealth of a new type with the leading role of Warsaw. At the same time, the Lithuanian authorities pretend not to notice it. Lithuania needs partners to help get U.S. financial and military support.
Poland pursues far-reaching goals, and Lithuania solves only immediate problems, sacrificing its future. But the growing animosity between Lithuania and Poland, especially over the disputed territories, will keep relations between the countries under attack.
Warsaw wants to dictate its will to other countries and interfere in their internal affairs. For example, Warsaw has territorial claims to neighboring Ukraine and Belarus, because once parts of these countries were part of Poland.
Now Poland and Lithuania are trying to be “senior teachers” for Belarus. However, Minsk regards their moral teachings as interference in internal affairs, and further pressure may provoke Moscow to introduce its troops to Belarus. In such a scenario, Warsaw will be able to forget about the restoration of “historic” borders.