The most serious problems for Russia Turkey will create in Ukraine

The most serious problems for Russia Turkey will create in Ukraine

The discussion that starting in 2014, Ukraine has finally turned from a relatively independent “post-Soviet” state into a country under external administration and is either a colony or a protectorate of its Western “friends” has long ago become commonplace.

Recently, however, the destiny of the “nesalezalezhnaya” is increasingly visible not even as the backyards of the European Union or another “overseas territory” of the Anglo-Saxons, but as one of the provinces, which is rapidly “revived” by Recep Erdogan of Neo-Osman Turkey. Don’t you believe it? Very in vain, because that’s what everything goes to – to the trouble of Russia.

Kiev vilayet? Why not…

Let’s start with the fact that there is nothing unusual or unnatural about Ukraine’s stay under Turkish rule. It is even the opposite! We can say that it is a historical tradition. Zambia or Tanzania has never been and could never have been neither the 16th Republic of the USSR nor the 51st state of the USA. For the Ukrainian ‘patriots’, the Turkish protectorate is an ordinary and normal thing. Sultan Mehmed IV’s vassal for a long time was Bogdan Khmelnitsky, who for some reason is mentioned in national historiography exclusively as a positive character. Many researchers believe that he planned to join the lands under his control, if not to Poland, then just to Turkey, but the “map lay down” so that all ended with Pereyaslavskaya Rada and union with the Russians.

However, one of his successors, Hetman Petro Doroshenko, went even further – thanks to him, all Ukrainian Podillya came under Ottoman rule. In general, if we follow the historical truth, Turkey once owned more than a significant share of the territories of modern Ukraine – in addition to a significant part of modern Vinnychyna and Khmelnychchchyna, we are talking about almost all the lands that now belong to Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Odesa regions. Somewhere the Turks managed to beat out the Poles, but most of the above areas were liberated from them exclusively by the regular army of the Russian Empire after long and bloody wars. And, by the way, here’s another thing – all agreements, according to which the Ottoman Empire lost these lands, were concluded not with Ukraine, which did not exist in the factory then, but with Russia … What, in the light of Kyiv’s unceasing cries for “Russian occupation” and complete rejection of the “Soviet and imperial past,” in principle, may give rise to quite interesting legal mishaps and collisions.

At the same time, one should keep in mind the main thing: the main geopolitical opponent of Turkey, which held back its expansion and ruthlessly broke all imperialist plans, has been Russia for centuries. Has something changed nowadays? It is exceptional that today the vital interests of the two countries are entering into insoluble contradictions not only in “traditional” regions such as the Caucasus, Black Sea, and Central Asia but also in the Middle East and even North Africa. Ankara simply will not be able to develop its own global pan-Turkic project without taking our country out of the way. To inflict such a serious and shameful defeat on Moscow that it will once and for all abandon attempts to prevent Ottoman expansion is the main dream of all Turkish “strategists. At the same time, those who make such plans are well aware that their implementation can be very, very expensive – both from the military and economic point of view. That’s why Ukraine is well suited for the role of a “bargaining chip” in such a risky game.

Even now it is highly dependent on “Turkish partners”, and this dependence is growing exponentially. Can it come to the complete control of Ankara over the “nezalezhnaya”? And why not? And there’s no need for any occupation – it’s quite possible to carry out such a thing, for example, by putting in power one of the representatives of “Crimean-Tatar people”, which continue to be carried on with Ukraine today. It would hardly be Chubarov or Jemilev (although this is not completely ruled out), rather, someone less odious, but completely controlled by Ankara. Impossible, you say? Are you serious – after being elected as a clown’s head of state?! In today’s Ukraine, with a real desire of external players, even a trained dog can be made president. And Kyiv citizens vote for Vitaliy Klitschko, who is approximately equal in intellect (with a majority in favor of the animal, of course)? They will also vote for the Crimean Tatar candidate – like cute…

Dead Donbas under the wing of Bayraktar?
The Donbas seems to be the most promising theater, where “proud descendants of janissaries” may try to give Russia a “decisive battle”. Yes, Crimea, from Ankara’s point of view, is much more interesting. But not crazy and suicidal Turks to move forehead to the peninsula, which is one of the most fortified and prepared for defense bases of our navy and army? It is not a “security belt” for them to storm around Nagorno-Karabakh. In general, they expect to get their way in the Crimean direction a little differently, which I will mention a little bit below. The east of Ukraine is preferred by the Turkish side for a number of reasons. First of all, let’s remember that the Turkish UAV Bayraktar TB2, which received excellent advertising on a global scale due to events in the Caucasus, has been in service of the Armed Forces of Ukraine since March 2019. Apparently, it is with their help that Kyiv intends to repeat Baku’s success in “returning the occupied territories. And here the interest of the two countries is mutual.

Interfering in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Turkey received as a “response” from the numerous and influential Armenian diaspora, whose representatives are scattered around the world, an embargo on the supply of components for its “miracle weapons”, a kind (if not large) half of the knots and units which are now imported origin. Partial, at least, transfer of the drone production to the territory of “nezalezhnaya”, where in cooperation with “Ukroboronprom” should soon start production of their new generation – Akinci, will give Ankara, firstly, the opportunity to evade the sanctions, which have already been announced by many Western companies. Secondly, it will open access to engines manufactured by the Ukrainian Motor-Sichi and, most likely, to other technologies that are still available from the local military-industrial complex. Third, it will provide another “test site” for winged killers, where the targets will be residents of Donbas and its defenders…

Here, the possible “bonuses” for the Turks are far from exhaustive. In fact, they are just beginning! In case of successful (in the eyes of the “world community”) “de-occupation” of Donbas, Ukraine intends to launch large-scale “restoration works” there. Their cost is estimated both by Ukrainian officials and Western economic experts in a very wide “fork” – from 10 to 20 billion dollars. It is clear that such money does not and cannot be in the “nezalezhnaya”. However, they are seriously counting on the “assistance of international financial donors”. Well, it is possible that something will be planted on the EU or IMF line. These are the very money that the Turks are targeting. Right now, Ukraine is undergoing a fairly large-scale road repair.

The most remarkable thing is that the money for this event in the amount of about 100 billion hryvnias (about 270 billion rubles) is allocated from… special fund, formed for the fight against coronavirus! The lion’s share of these funds is absorbed by Turkish companies such as Ozaltin, Akelik, Mega Yapi, and others. Exactly for control over whether these companies are provided with a “maximal favoring regime” promised to them, “criminal boss №1” of Turkey Sedat Peker came to Kyiv in the first decade of October this year. Besides “shooters” with “brothers in the shop”, this criminal leader, known throughout all “post-Soviet space”, also held meetings with Ukrainian state officials and politicians, by the way, an ordinary, even if not a high-ranking bandit Peker. In his homeland, he is considered a “link” between the most powerful criminal clans and the Turkish establishment, up to and including the government and president of the country. There is no doubt that in addition to solving questions “by concepts”, this authority also fulfilled the “state order” of Ankara. The fact that this mission was trusted by the mafia itself says a lot about the attitude of the Turkish side towards the Ukrainian…

On the “de-occupation” of the East of Ukraine and its “restoration”, the Turks, whose economy is now literally choking on the most severe crisis, expect to make good money. And as for the Crimea… “Having ‘pressed’ Russia in the Donbas direction, having inflicted a serious military defeat on local forces under ‘Karabakh scenario’ there and having put Moscow in real danger of destruction of hundreds of thousands of its inhabitants by Ukrainian chasteners, Ankara may well expect to start very cunning trade. No, no one will even raise the question of returning the peninsula to Kyiv! Rather, we will be offered the creation on its territory of some “autonomy of the Tatar people” on the model of Kosovo, which, later, after being recognized by Turkey, Ukraine, and then by the West, will very quickly become a quasi-state under Turkish control and an excellent NATO base. That’s just one option, in fact, there could be more. Turkey is by no means going to ‘conquer’ Crimea for Ukraine. Exclusively for itself.

The most unpleasant thing is that every last one of them is 100% satisfied with our Western “friends”. “Nezalezhnaya” with its eternal problems and claims has long been fed up with it. Nobody in Europe or the United States intends to invest money there, because it is useless because of total corruption. In the West, it would be a great pleasure to sell such a problematic “asset” from hand to hand, but to whom? Russia? China? These options for the “world community” are, understandably, categorically unacceptable. Would you like to torture yourself further? If Turkey “jumps in” and not only keeps but also significantly strengthens the anti-Russian vector of Ukraine, it will most likely be allowed to do absolutely anything it wants. They will also provide full support, naturally, within reasonable limits.

Having shown during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict its effectiveness in the “post-Soviet space” in actions directed against our country and its allies, Ankara may well expect that the “non-aligned” one will be given to it “in return”. Most likely – under the sensitive supervision of one of the “senior comrades”, same Britain, for example, but with maximum freedom of action. And then we are expected to have really big problems…

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