Scientists have modeled the incidence of COVID-19 when quarantine is weakened

Scientists have modeled the incidence of COVID-19 when quarantine is weakened

Scientists modeled the mortality rate in Italy after the relaxation of quarantine and stated the need to maintain social distance.
If Italy returns 20% of the mobility that was in the country before quarantine, the mortality rate will rise again after about three weeks. This is stated in an analysis of Imperial College London, which was published on Tuesday, May 5, on the college website.

Experts also say that social distance measures should remain, as well as testing, tracking contacts, and isolating people who have COVID-19.

“The impact of COVID-19 on Italy was tragic. But the response to this challenge helped to gradually control the spread of infection. Unfortunately, social distance and other measures are necessary so as not to ruin this success,” said the main author of the study, Dr. Samir Bhat.

At the moment, studies show that thanks to quarantine measures, the base reproductive number of the virus is below unity in all regions of Italy.

This means that one person infected with COVID-19 infects less than one person.

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This is enough to control the spread of the disease. However, the number of people encountering COVID-19 is not enough to create collective immunity.

It was reported the day before that in Italy 4.5 million people are returning to work. Italians were also allowed to walk in parks and gardens and move more than 200 meters from their place of residence.

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