The Russian media leaked information about the alleged detention in the Syrian province of Latakia by our special services of a group of soldiers and officers of the Islamic Republic Guard Corps (IRGC). According to the Ebaa website News, was arrested “11 Iranians in the district of Sheikh Badr in Tartus. They had discovered the radio equipment, which was intercepted by the Russian military airbase “Hamim”.
Attempts to access the specified site is blocked, but in the blog of the Intelligence, Group news is duplicated Ebaa News. Nothing like this could be found, however, the site is updated irregularly. Given the fact that the leading Western news agencies have not reported a “sensational arrest”, we can assume that we are talking about a fake.
However, such silence in the media space was observed around the incident with tankers in the port of Fujairah (one of the largest sea harbors of the UAE). Information about it initially even denied. Later, foreign publications wrote about the attack on oil vessels as a minor incident, although the White House threatened to punish Tehran for the actions of Pro-Iranian non-state forces.
We also note that not so long ago, the Agency Syria Call reported a clash between Russian troops and Pro-Iranian militias in the city of Aleppo. The conflict supposedly occurred against the background of growing tension between two allies of Damascus. Although Russia and Iran support the government of Bashar al-Assad, between them in the territories controlled by the official authorities, increasing competition for influence. By the way, about the complex relations between Moscow and Tehran “SP” told in February. It seems that by may on the Syrian fronts, they only escalated. After the Israeli bombing of Iranian facilities near Aleppo, groups supported by Tehran were accused of coordinating with Tel Aviv Russians who hope to benefit from the weakening of the Iranian presence, — writes the Middle East newspaper Memo Iddleeast Monitor. — Last month, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed that Russian President Vladimir Putin would also like all Iranian forces to be withdrawn from Syria.”
According to editor Ibrahim Hewitt, the contradictions between Moscow and Tehran lie in a purely economic plane. Despite the fact that the IRGC suffered the greatest losses, Syria has granted Russia exclusive rights to produce oil and gas in Syria. Of course, commitments to the rehabilitation of power plants, stations for pumping the gas and construction of plants for the next 25 years was to provide Russian contractors lucrative contracts, and the Kremlin — the levers of pressure on Damascus.
Against this background, the construction of a road from Tehran through Iraq to Damascus can be seen as a gnawed bone thrown from the bar table.
However, a very serious problem is brewing here. The abandoned ruined city of Syria, where a civil war was dominated by Sunnis, today intensively populated Shiite immigrants who, apparently, hoped to get caught by the Moscow agreements. In addition, these people create a powerful religious base of Iran in the SAR. If you look at the news Ebaa News, you can see numerous stories of executions of “fighters and spies LIH*”.
For Moscow, and for Damascus, such emigration is a time bomb.
As you know, “the East is a delicate matter”, perhaps, therefore, at the end of January 2019, Deputy head of the Russian Foreign Ministry Sergei Ryabkov, answering a question from CNN journalist, whether Russia is an ally of Iran, said that he would not use the word “ally” here. And he added that the security of Israel in this context — “one of the priorities of Russia.”
However, it has long been an open secret as the fact that the Israeli air force maintains the operational contacts with the airbase “Hamim”, including in order to prevent a repeat of the tragedy, which happened on 17 September 2018, when he was hit by our electronic reconnaissance aircraft Il-20M. Then, we recall, died 15 Russian officers. The Defense Ministry accused the Jewish pilots of provoking the incident.
There was no effective response from Moscow. As time has shown, it would be a mistake to consider sending three divisions of s-300PM-2 anti-aircraft missile systems to Syria as punishment. On the territory of the SAR, Jewish fighters continue to bomb objects that Tel Aviv claims belong to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Hezbollah movement.
Most likely, the anger of the Kremlin was designed for domestic audiences, and the transfer of additional military equipment of Assad’s army is aimed at installing under its full control of Syrian air defense, which probably had a strong Iranian influence.
Thus, it is logical to assume that Tehran might be interested in the interception of conversations between operators of the base “Hamim” and the headquarters of the IDF (Israel defense). Of course, technically it is hardly feasible, unless, of course, there was a leak of encryption codes.
In addition, striking the moment of stuffing “news of the arrest of 11 soldiers of the IRGC” — on the eve of the visit to Russia of us foreign Minister Michael Pompeo. The news from the alleged Agency Ebaa News could be a probing of public opinion of the Russian Federation for changes in Moscow’s policy towards Tehran.
It is clear that Iran categorically does not want such a development. To make it clear why here is some information. If there is a war between the US and Iran, there will first be a battle for air supremacy. However, according to the analytical services of the Pentagon, of the 17 squadrons of the Islamic Republic air force in combat readiness is only two, consisting, by the way, of the old American f-14 Tomcat fighters.
Yes, Tehran still has MiG-29A and MiG-29UB, but they are not equipped with modern Russian air-to-air missiles R-77 and R-27. As for the su-22M4/ su-22UM-3K and su-24MK, these aircraft were delivered to Iran strictly as bombers. That is, for air combat, they are a priori not suitable.
It is no coincidence that the Pentagon transferred to the Persian Gulf squadron F-15C Eagle 48th fighter wing of the US air force. These aircraft, along with the 5th squadrons of the F-18E Super Hornet, based on the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln, will certainly ensure victory in the air, because they have already conducted training battles against the F-14 Tomcat, They are afraid of the Yankees and the overlap of the Strait of Hormuz, through which daily passes about 18.5 million barrels of oil and oil products, which is about 20% of world production. In Saudi Arabia, bypass pipelines have already been built, the capacity of which will be enough to fulfill export contracts with America. In addition, the parties agreed to stabilize prices in the near future. So first of all, China, which buys up to 50% of Iranian hydrocarbons, will suffer.
Washington does not aim to conquer Iran, the task is likely to destroy the military and civilian infrastructure. The White House is confident that the Iranians, left without electricity, water, and food, themselves will displace the current anti-American government. In these conditions, it would be a huge mistake for Tehran to aggravate the situation with Moscow by sending spies to the Russian airbase.
* The Islamic State (ISIS) was declared a terrorist organization by a decision of the Supreme court of the Russian Federation of December 29, 2014, and its activities in Russia are prohibited.