The situational response, lack of strategic vision and, accordingly, strategic understanding, is a deep (and, I want to believe, curable, even by surgical or chemotherapeutic methods) defect of domestic diplomacy. It is terrible because it not only deprives it of the opportunity to protect national interests and turns its bodies into “funeral teams” of varying degrees of effectiveness but also embroils the country and its leadership in a variety of conflicts, which they sometimes have no idea.
Roughly speaking, having refused to develop a foreign policy strategy and its active implementation, the country’s leadership turns itself into an analog of a drunk in a transformer box: from where and when it will hit — it is unclear, but it does not matter. For will hit accurately.
Thus, Gorbachev, who became the totem of the West for refusing not only to implement, but even to formulate strategic goals of Soviet civilization and ensure its effective destruction, was, nevertheless, betrayed by the United States, England and France, which not only did not interfere, but also greatly contributed to the loss of power. Today in Russia, widespread idea that the West had sought to destroy the Soviet Union as a strategic competitor, — but the participants remember events that really took place rage tactical intelligence operatives (some of which are then grown to ambassadors on supervised territories) was initially constrained by the managerial elites, fearing the destabilization of the territories with nuclear weapons.
The turning point was Gorbachev’s decision to panic the hasty absorption of the GDR by West Germany, restoring the latter as a key subject of European and important — world politics, and dramatically changing the balance of power in Europe not in favor of England and France, as well as the United States.
It was called romanticism, a desire to spoil “senior partners rukopozhatnosti”, a thirst for balance, or a betrayal — it doesn’t matter. It is important that Gorbachev, abandoning the idea of national interests, thus deprived himself of the opportunity to comprehend the meaning and consequences of his step. And the Western elites (except, of course, German) perceived the Anschluss of the GDR as a sudden, unconditional and hostile step of Gorbachev. In fact — as his treason.
As a result, Gorbachev made himself unacceptable to them, which forced them to put on even less independent and capable leaders of the second row like Kravchuk and Yeltsin. That is what made the collapse of the Soviet Union inevitable.
Characteristically, Gorbachev’s rejection — with all the demonstrative gratitude for his unmotivated capitulation in the cold war — was such that deprived him of the power of Bush, the elder, one of the most successful us presidents, who seemingly reaped the fruits of Reagan’s efforts.
The collapse of the domestic policy of “friend Gorby” the West was not interested: it is important that he was his own. And he was punished for betraying the interests of the global West — not so deep, but still obvious.
Putin is becoming less and less acceptable to almost all groups (and not only the West but also the global world) not because of his latent patriotism and periodic demonstration of independence, but because of global frustration: he obviously does not have a universalist project for the world, which Europe craves, and moderate (and part of the immoderate) Islam, and the non-isolationist part of the American (and with it, and global) establishment, and even China.
Normal for the leaders of Belarus or Estonia positioning on the part of the leader of Russia is unacceptable for global and large regional elites, because Russia because of its resources and Messianic national character objectively and obviously is an actor in the strategic restructuring and normalization of the world. And the refusal of its leadership to perform its objective function is perceived even by its enemies, who seek to destroy it, as an act of unjustifiable betrayal.
At the tactical level, the West, of course, will support Russia’s liberal traitors, eager for the sake of little power and little money (and mainly in the interests of global speculators) turning it into a tangle of death gnawing nedoestonia, drifting to the state of “big Haiti”.
But strategically, the West (and China, and the conscious part of the Islamic world) desperately needs Russia not in its agents, but in those who, fitting into the concept of the collapse of the world, will be able to offer humanity a new universal project that allows us to hope for a new Union then, after the already begun global collapse. The search for such leaders is in the degenerate domestic get-togethers since 2006 but in vain. Their appearance (and even the appearance of hope for them) will qualitatively change the strategy of the West in relation to Russia: from the warehouse of meat products, it will again, as in the first half of the twentieth century, become a valuable incubator for all the warring parties of the future – and liberal agents will be sacrificed to its carriers with the same ease as last time, in 1927-1938.
Of course, the carriers of the new global project cannot be obscurantists. They will have to understand the importance of modern technologies, the loss of the influence of money against the background of the growing power of technology, the uselessness of capital in the conditions of direct, without financial intermediation of the management of masses of people through social platforms.
The world is eagerly looking for a man in Russia who feels modernity at his fingertips — about the same way President Putin probably feels every thousand cubic meters of gas and every s-400 complex.
Unbeknownst to us, even with our participation, the world was new: computer binding changes, not only machines, but also the soul, and this new world is desperately in need of a new Russia.
Not slavishly and blindly submitting to global disintegration at all levels — from the personality to global markets – and that which will comprehend this disintegration, will master it, will subdue its energy and inertia and will transform it into new, still unclear synthesis to the world and, at least, right now will give it hope for it.
The main human instincts — justice and freedom: the collapse of global markets and the collapse of the world into a Global depression deprives us of both – and only Russia, as a large and incurable creative uncertainty, can be a source of revival of the world on an acceptable basis for him these instincts. And her immersion in the pettiness of tactical calculations and current balances, categorical, enshrined in the Constitution, the rejection of a large project and strategic vision (unthinkable without ideology) is unacceptable for the world and deprives it of hope for self-preservation, for the implementation, albeit in the future, its main interests, and instincts. Humanity — and even the most rabid and conservative part of the Western elites — he desperately wants to straighten out the vector of his development turning into feudalism from the new Dark ages back to progress: from the familiar and understandable to the last torture chamber of hell Arkanar to the shining, albeit frightening unknown world “half a Day. XXII century” by Strugatsky.
Old social ties are being destroyed by new technologies before our eyes, but man remains a social animal and therefore desperately needs to be United by new social ties into a new family and a new cartel – and the world knows that Russian culture is the only one capable of generating new universal meanings and creating social mechanisms for their implementation.
It is clear that in the offshore aristocracy of the Russian Federation, as was recorded in 2006, there is no one to talk about these topics: the very formulation of the question is perceived by it at best as a muffled mutter in Chinese.
And this is another, in addition to the well-known (focus on yesterday’s liberals against the patriots who are displacing them around the world, on money against technology, incapacity and malevolence) factors that make the change of the elite in Russia inevitable.
The only question is whether Russia itself will continue with this change.
The current highly effective (without any jokes) programs like “leaders of Russia” are directed in a fundamentally different direction and therefore only aggravate the situation.
Where and how will the representatives of the new elite come to power? Where and how are the clubs (if not gangs), which is tomorrow (for the historical hour — by teatime today) to take power?
The answer is simple: in invisible to the authorities boiling domestic social broth.
In a huge number of unemployed production workers and technologists – with terrible education, but excellent practice. Run production from the ground up, who commanded the “work collectives” of the ignorant of the Russian language migrant workers, retired army officers and on the brink of insanity pensioners.
These people are angry. They hate speculators, raiders, and officials who have killed — and more than once in the memory of even relatively young — their production and sent them — again, more than once — to the faint street.
They understand the importance of technology and objective reality. And they know the real, not the propaganda place of Russia in the world division of labor.
Other parts of the future elite — again humiliated, this time monstrously overgrown with oil money bureaucracy, the military, and the third-fourth level managers who understand what to do, but are forced every day to spend their lives and others on the absolute (and often also corruption) madness.
Having broken the pension reform “Crimean consensus”, distraught with impunity and money offshore aristocracy launched the process in the eyes of becoming irreversible socio-political changes.
And, plunging into their whirlpool, it is important to know: the world works for the strong. If the strongest trend of our society will be a liberal suicide and situational response to it – Russia will be killed as Byzantium was killed.
If some forces within Russia, in accordance with its culture and tradition, are able to offer the world a new universalist project that once again unites humanity with new freedom and new justice, they will win with huge external support, even if they are a miserable bunch of persecuted sectarians like the Bolsheviks in early 1917.