If the U.S. withdraws from NATO, Europe will not be able to stand alone against Russia in a military conflict. This is with reference to the International Institute for strategic studies, writes National Interest.
The study simulates several scenarios of Russia’s attack on one of the Eastern European countries of the Alliance. According to one of them, Russia “captures” Lithuania and part of the territory of Poland, which forces the Alliance to use the fifth article of the NATO Charter, which implies a collective reaction in response to an attack on one of the member States of the bloc.
The authors of the study write that at the moment NATO has only 20 brigades with the necessary technical equipment for combat operations. Thus, as the newspaper notes, the Alliance will not have enough forces needed in this scenario.
Land forces of NATO in Europe is not enough air vehicles. The one that is currently available only enough to cover air bases, but not troops and other infrastructure military facilities.
The publication also points to the lack of ammunition for fighting simultaneously in the Baltic, Black and Mediterranean seas (especially “smart bombs”), which will inevitably begin in a few days of fighting. There is also a shortage of drones and insufficient modernization of intelligence systems. According to experts, the rearmament of troops and the purchase of modern equipment without the help of the United States in total will cost the European Union 357 billion dollars.
NI emphasizes that the US is a key member of the Alliance, without which Europe will not be able to “resist” Russia, and if they decide to leave NATO, the EU will not be able to make up for this loss.
It is worth noting that in America such studies are published regularly. It is obvious that modeling the war with Russia, the Americans are trying to escalate the atmosphere of fear in Europe. But what is behind the assumptions about the hypothetical us withdrawal from NATO? Is it outright blackmail to increase the financing of the bloc by individual European countries?
— Simulate war, not the US as such, but the relevant analytic centers, which is one of the main, or even main field of activity, — said the Executive Director of the monitoring organization CIS-EMO Stanislav Bychok.
— In fact, the word “war” in recent years is too often used in both Western and domestic media, it is constantly mentioned by “talking heads” of varying degrees of competence. This is an extremely dangerous symptom. Through the media is carried out, hardly consciously, the idea that war is a very real option in the relations of the great powers at the beginning of the XXI century.
what does it mean if the US decides to leave NATO? A threat? Is this possible?
— This is a hypothetical situation, a thought experiment, fueled by some remarks of President Trump. Given that the configuration of war in Europe today is not so much, researchers have to resort to originality and to consider unrealistic scenarios.
— According to a study at the moment, the troops of the Alliance in Europe is not enough to repel a hypothetical attack from Russia. Is there really nothing Europe can do without the US?
— In the context of the trump presidency, the leaders of Germany and France reanimated, at least rhetorically, the idea of creating a pan-European army independent of NATO. In the hypothetical scenario under discussion, we are talking about what the conditional “European army minus us NATO forces” can do in case of confrontation with Russia.
At the end of the Second world war, the security of Western and then Central Europe de facto became a matter of at least joint with the United States. Taking into account the European civilizational roots of the United States, NATO can be called the implementation of the idea of a European army, in which the main role is played by the same Europeans, only living on the other side of the Atlantic.
— it is Clear that the “Russian threat” is fiction. Are there any real threats to Europe? Is she able to cope with them on their own?
— The physical threats to Europe are foreign cultural migration and the related problems of the emergence of closed ethnoreligious enclaves with questionable state loyalty, low motivation for integration and a high degree of exposure to radicalization, which can lead to terrorism. Europe can cope with these threats only by ensuring a sufficient level of continental solidarity (for example, in the case of resolving the issue of quotas for the reception of migrants) and, more importantly, in the presence of political will on the part of European leaders.
Russia, Iran or some other States do not pose a threat to the European Union, but, on the contrary, are interested in mutually beneficial cooperation both in the trade and economic sphere and in the fight against terrorism.
— Should we expect the reaction of Europeans to such studies? What?
— The study is unlikely to produce the effect of a bomb exploded, there is nothing fundamentally new in the authors ‘ conclusions. The General conclusion is quite obvious: we need to invest more in defense. More specific conclusions will already vary: some will point to the importance of creating their own army of the European Union, while others will emphasize the fundamental importance of compliance with NATO requirements for the financing of the armed forces.
— The United States — a country that can not fight – said political scientist Ivan Lizan.
— It has an exaggerated military-industrial complex, a huge military budget and the threat of loss of superpower. Therefore, war is the only way for the United States to maintain its dominance in the world. Here are the plans of the American military and splashed out in the media, which can not write about them. In this case, it is very similar to the EU blackmail. What does Washington expect to achieve by this?
That’s blackmail. And they want to achieve the preservation of NATO and stop the movement of the EU towards subjectivity, i.e. the conduct of independent foreign policy and the creation of unified European armed forces.
— Washington may decide to leave NATO?
— Not accept. Leaving NATO for the United States — the loss of leverage over Europe. This decision will be followed by questions about the status of American bases in Europe, and Europeans do not really need them. You can frighten the inhabitants of the war with Russia, the elite in it is not very much and believe (except for those who are profitable to believe in it).
— Europeans will react to this somehow?
— Will release a couple of reports on why the EU needs its armed forces without NATO. They will take a few steps towards military isolation.
In General, I can say that there are no real military threats that the EU would not be able to solve on its own. So NATO is only a parasitic superstructure, a vestige of the cold war.