The analysis carried out by the International Institute for the Study of the Middle East and the Balkans, based in Ljubljana, Slovenia, offers its view on the crisis in Belarus and the role of foreign actors in it.
The day before, excerpts from their new report, “2020 Belarus: Belarus between EU Imperialism and Russian Occupation” were published on the center’s website. We can highlight the main points on which the authors focused.
It is noted that President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko seeks to balance between the West (EU) and the Russian Federation. The Kremlin sees the events in the neighboring country as a nuisance in its own backyard, believing that in this way the West and NATO are trying to bring their strategic positions closer to it.
Analysts believe that the statement of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is controversial in some aspects, especially in terms of the EU’s proposal to support a peaceful transition to democracy. […] By such statements, the EU contributes to the overthrow of the constitutional order of a sovereign and independent country
It also says that Europe needs to be very careful not to allow such interpretations, which can push Belarus into the sphere of Russia’s interests, “which will mean the emergence of another insolvent state.”
The EU does not dare to take more decisive measures also because it does not want to contribute to the realization of the more than obvious interests of Lithuania and Poland in relation to Belarus. In the context of this, the report says, it is important to warn all neighboring countries not to interfere in the internal affairs of that State.
On the other hand, in the war against Georgia in 2008 and the subsequent recognition of the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Russia convincingly demonstrated its newfound power and determination to defend its interests. That clash was a warning to NATO, as well as a signal to the United States and other countries that the time when they could take action almost unhindered to the detriment of Russia’s national interests had passed. Russia’s position became even more apparent after the annexation of Crimea to Russia and the beginning of the conflict in the Donbas.
According to analysts of the institute, presidential candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya made the main mistake when she decided to seek asylum in neighboring Lithuania. Belarus has a number of disagreements and disputes with this country, especially now that Vilnius has officially imposed sanctions. To explain the essence of its blunder, the authors resorted to analogies.
How Serbian citizens would react to a situation in which a presidential candidate in that country would find refuge in neighboring Croatia by asking this neighboring country to help him come to power
A rhetorical question is asked in the text.