Tehran’s missile strike caused minimal damage, and Trump responded with only regular sanctions. Is it possible to forget about the threat of the third world war?
The threat of the Third World for Distraction
Some suspect that the American president deliberately created this situation to distract attention. It is remembered that Bill Clinton approved the bombing of Afghanistan and Iran at the height of the Monica Lewinsky scandal.
A HuffPost-YouGov poll found that 43 percent of respondents approved of Suleimani’s elimination, while 38 percent opposed it. Nineteen percent said they were undecided.
Iran and Turkey gain advantage
Les Echos, France
It was Iran that got the most from The Chaos created by Trump, as the Iranian people rallied around their leader, demonstrating their position during the large-scale funeral of his beloved general.
Turkey, which invaded Libya while the rest of the world was closely watched, also benefited from the strategic benefit. It is worth noting that Syria, whose Turkish intervention took place three months ago, and Libya for four centuries were colonies of the Ottoman Empire.
The End of Iran’s Ambitions
The death of Kasem Suleimani may be a harbinger of the end of Iran’s ambitions to become a dominant force in the Middle East. Threats of retribution from a country that cannot even organize a funeral are questionable.
Trump’s decisive move on Suleimani comes at a time when Iran’s room for maneuver is extremely limited, especially given the dire situation of the Iranian economy due to U.S. sanctions.
Key allies should support Washington and understand that the only way to communicate with Tehran is to respond with a blow to the strike.
Trump baffles not only enemies but also allies
New York Times, USA
His rule is largely situational – Trump, preferring to act intuitively, moves from one clash to another, many of which he creates himself.
Trump sees his unpredictability as a sign of strength, implying that he could catch the enemy by surprise – as he did, perhaps with perhaps the second-most important figure in Iran, who shed American blood.
However, this style of government puzzles not only opponents, but also allies, and this makes it difficult to find support for the decisions of the American leader.
Iran remembers the eight-year war well
The Independent, Britain
Iran is trying to make it clear that this is payback for one concrete action, not an escalation of the conflict to full-scale war. Tehran remembers well the eight-year war with Iraq in the 1980s, in which hundreds of thousands of Iranians were killed and many cities destroyed.
The Iranian attack could be an act of sufficient revenge, the long-term goal of which is to withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq.
Iran’s cautious strike
Washington Post, USA
The Iranian missile strike on bases in Iraq where U.S. troops were stationed was specifically designed so that casualties were minimal, sources among senior U.S. officials said.
This allowed Iran to “save face” and for both sides of the conflict to avoid a situation on the brink of war. The White House has been preparing for Tehran’s military response since the morning of Tuesday, January 7.
UIA plane crash amid Iran attack Main
By mid-afternoon, according to intelligence and Iraqi authorities, U.S. officials knew that Iran was going to attack targets where the U.S. military was present but did not know which ones.
As a result, Washington was able to ensure the safety of its military, in particular by ordering them to take refuge in bunkers where they remained for several hours after the strike.
The opportunity to end the conflict
Iran’s missile strikes on U.S. bases will give the White House hawks the opportunity to instill a conflict with Iran, but they can probably provide a way out of this crisis.
The Iranian missile attack was filled with symbolism: they flew at the same time as the general was killed, high-ranking officials at that moment published the Iranian flag, as did Trump, and the operation itself was called martyr Suleimani.
However, it soon became clear that the strike was calculated in such a way that to inflict the least damage on the American side. Tehran said the missile attack was a self-defense measure, not the first shot in the war.
Trump, in his first comments after those strikes, also tried to downplay their significance. There is a possibility of curtailing the conflict for both sides without losing face.
War takes on visible features
The real war between the United States and Iran is now taking on visible features. In the three years of his presidency, Trump has demonstrated many of his traits, and there is no prudence among them.
The decision of war and peace is now in the hands of a man who does not listen to his advisers and thinks little about the rational understanding of the consequences of his actions.
Trump’s Iran policy began with the rupture of the nuclear deal, or maybe a real war that no one can want.
The world economy under threat
Perhaps one of the most serious consequences of the escalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran could be Tehran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz for the movement of oil tankers. The results of such measures would be disastrous, and that was, therefore, unlikely to happen.
But if Iran does take such a step, there will be a big panic in the international oil markets, as about 21 percent of the world’s oil consumption passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
In this case, Russia will become the most important stabilizing force in the market and will entail significant financial, strategic and diplomatic benefits.
Even if the International Energy Agency deploys its strategic reserves, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will have a negative impact on everyone due to rising oil prices.
If the crisis drags on, high oil prices will have a downward impact on global energy consumption and could lead to a global economic downturn. In the near term, however, oil-producing countries will benefit from rising oil prices, especially Russia.
Trump refuses military response
BBC News, Britain
It took Donald Trump just 24 hours to completely change his image. Even over the weekend, the U.S. president threatened to launch a devastating blow to Iran, destroying historical and cultural sites in the country.
On Wednesday afternoon, the head of the White House, behind whom stood representatives of the country’s top leadership and the Pentagon, delivered an emphatically calm and peace-loving speech, promising Tehran as punishment for the missile attack on U.S. military bases only economic sanctions.
The public was on Tehran
One of the reasons that Iran struck American bases was public pressure. The demand for revenge was an exceptional case in the history of the Islamic Republic when almost all political and social groups took a unified position, said Hamidreza Azizi, a senior lecturer at Tehran’s I’m University. Shahida Beheshti.
According to him, the Iranian authorities could not help but respond to the U.S., otherwise, they risked losing face. However, they did so carefully and are now focused on getting the U.S. military out of Iraq.
Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Center for Strategy and Technology Analysis, notes that Iran has a rather significant missile capability and could fire 20, but 200 missiles at the Americans if desired. But he did not because he is not interested in a serious escalation of the conflict.
Donald Trump’s response was to expect the US not to want a big war, so limited to economic measures. It is important for Trump to show that his program, which comes down to maximum pressure on Iran, is successful, according to Vitaly Naumkin, scientific director of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
Iran strike may be considered a symbolic gesture
Carnegie Moscow Center, Russia
Iran has chosen the shortest route in time and space to respond to the assassination of its general: ended the day of The funeral of Kasem Suleimani by attacking two U.S. military bases in Iraq.
A weak response from Tehran can be considered, if desired by both sides, to be a symbolic gesture that gives Iran the opportunity to save face and draws a line under the chain of escalations. The Americans killed a famous and popular Iranian military leader, and the Iranians did not kill anyone, but their strike was the last.
Such a line was summed up in the spring of 2018 in Syria: in response to another accusation of a chemical attack, Trump, who was then particularly intensely suspected of colluding with Russia, carried out the first-ever Syrian war missile strikes on the bases of the official Syrian Army.
The losses were minimal and what looked like the beginning of a direct U.S. war against the Assad regime was over.