In a week, the memoirs of John Bolton, a former trump security adviser, fanatic, hawk, and Russophobe, should be released in the United States. As follows from the fragments already published, Trump seems to be an incompetent and narcissistic amateur who makes mistakes that are unforgivable for the student. This will be his punishment for the main mistake in the White House.
Bad is the analyst who does not say in time: “We warned.” And now – we warned you!
The newspaper VZGLYAD warned that the appointment of John Bolton as national security adviser (and this is a very high post in the American hierarchy) would be Trump’s terrible mistake, perhaps the main one of all.
Everything that happened after that was easily predictable. And the fact that Bolton quits with a scandal (however, he stayed in the administration for a year and a half, which is a lot by Trump’s standards). And the fact that he will be offered a huge fee for his memoirs. And the fact that in these memoirs there will be dirty linen of the White House and a lot of assurances that Trump is leading the nation into the abyss. And the fact that Washington will try to prevent the publication of the book (the Justice Department sued, bearing in mind that Bolton’s revelations were disclosed to the state secret), and even that he won’t succeed, because Trump’s despising media will carry the hottest pieces “on the tails” “.
There were rumors that this couple did not ask from the very beginning: supposedly Trump did not like the adviser’s walrus mustache, but something else had to alert him – intrigue, fanaticism, and Bolton’s ideological integrity.
What impressed Trump in him is also more or less clear: professionalism, experience, length of service. That the adviser despised the restrictions imposed on America by international law and international organizations (as a permanent representative to the UN under Bush Jr., Bolton bluntly stated that there is no UN, but only the will of the United States and its national interests). However, the fact that these figures will enter the clinch initially seemed inevitable.
It is not a matter of specific disagreements between them, although it is worth mentioning them. Bolton spoke for the war in Afghanistan to a victorious end, and Trump for the withdrawal of troops and for negotiations with the Taliban. Bolton defended a military invasion of Iran and Venezuela, while Trump wanted to limit himself to sanctions. Bolton believed that North Korea should be “squeezed”, and Trump was in a hurry to hold a historic summit and personally meet with Kim Jong-un. Bolton remains a principled Russophobe, while Trump criticized the restrictions imposed against Russia (which became known thanks to Bolton’s same book)
Economic pressure, threats, and at the end of it all is a “big deal”: so Trump imagines a foreign policy that returns America to its “former greatness”. At the same time, it is advisable to save money (the State Department’s budget was seriously cut) and keep the soldiers closer to home (the reduction of the American contingent in the space from the Middle East to Southeast Asia and the refusal to start new wars became the corporate style of the 45th president of the United States).
Not that – Bolton. His tools are military interventions, color revolutions, the filling up of weapons with those who are considered the enemy of America’s enemies.
And in this, he is one of the best. Trump should have been aware of the insolubility of the contradictions between him and the new adviser, but nevertheless decided to harness a hedgehog in one cart with a snake – and now he will pay for it.
The main thing here is the Bolton fanaticism mentioned above and the specificity of his managerial methods. He was a well-known intriguer, capable of forgery and driving his bosses by the nose in the event that reality was contrary to his goals. In his picture of the world, he does not betray the administration from his native Republican Party, pouring dirt on the incumbent president shortly before the election, but defends his homeland from a traitor, that is, Trump, who refuses to carry democracy on American bayonets to all corners of the world.
Trump has already called Bolton “a touchy boring fool,” Secretary of State Pompeo – a liar. Meanwhile, according to already published fragments of the book, it seems that Bolton in his work is quite true. At least in some unpleasant details for Trump.
It’s not even about the details. For example, according to Bolton, Trump knows geography and history so poorly that he asked his assistants if Finland is part of Russia. It’s easy to believe – despite the fact that Trump’s election details are unlikely to harm: the vast majority of Americans are at odds with foreign geography and foreign history, so what would not be forgiven to the Russian president would go unnoticed in America.
The point is the main conclusion that Bolton made from his service in the White House: all the efforts of Trump in the international arena are subordinated to the idea of re-election for a second term. That is, he is not ready to sacrifice his rating for the sake of taking even unpopular, but necessary measures.
Another question is what measures are these. Bolton clearly means that Washington should have sent troops to Tehran, Damascus, and Caracas, as he did in the case of Baghdad (a former adviser – one of the main architects of the Iraqi adventure).
But Trump refrained from many other steps, which were announced in the status of a candidate for the presidency.
Russia is no exception. Trump could well have established relations with Moscow since he wished for this, but he trusted his advisers (Bolton himself) that this could undermine his popularity against the backdrop of the “rashagate”. As a result, these relations are now at their lowest point since the days of early Reagan and his “cowboy” diplomacy.
He could force Ukraine to implement the Minsk agreements and thereby solve one of the most painful problems on the European continent. He could have averted the threat of a new war from the Balkans for a long time if he had not listened to “hawks” like Bolton. He could bring to the logical end “detente” in relation to the DPRK. He could and obviously wanted a lot, but he was convinced that this would harm his rating.
Now Bolton’s book will hit this rating against the backdrop of a coronacrisis and mass protests. It confirms everything that the president was nearly impeached – the refusal of military assistance to Kyiv until they begin an investigation against Biden’s son.
Even worse, it will inevitably quarrel between key members of the presidential administration: for example, Trump himself and Pompeo (a mustachioed retiree writes that the Secretary of State, speaking in Kipling terms, called the boss an earthworm).
Finally, the book very strikingly illustrates Trump’s hypocrisy: diving with the Chinese authorities in public, he asks them to help him win the election.
Yes, the politician’s desire to win the election is a forgivable sin, moreover, this is one of the mandatory components of a system of checks and balances that protect any country from radicalism. But still not with the help of China, declared by the same Trump the main threat to America’s well-being.
Events in the United States are now developing rapidly – many factors work both against and to help Trump in the upcoming elections, the outcome of which is still unpredictable: everything can change at any time, too many “black swans” flocked to the United States.
But it cannot be ruled out that it is the scandalous book that will become the straw that will break the back of a camel.
Trump could not know about the radicalism, fanaticism, and intrigue of Bolton. But over-conceit, confidence in the ability to “break” anyone clouded his mind – and a deliberately erroneous appointment took place.
Errors must be paid. Even if you’re the president of the United States.