In mid-August 2020, the UN Security Council rejected a draft U.S. resolution extending the arms embargo against Iran for 13 years. The embargo, under the Nuclear Deal (JCPOA) approved in 2015, will end on 18 October 2020.
It should be noted that out of the 15 members of the UN Security Council (5 permanent and 10 non-permanent) only the United States and the Dominican Republic supported the resolution. Russia and China have spoken out against it. The remaining 11 countries abstained altogether.
Thus, soon there will be a very large market for arms sales on the planet, which is extremely important during the international economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. At the same time, the activities of European countries in the Iranian market will be extremely hampered by unilateral American sanctions, which Washington imposed in advance in 2018. Therefore, the main suppliers of weapons to Iran, no doubt, will be Russia and China, which are already under U.S. sanctions pressure.
In any case, in the foreseeable future, Tehran will have a large number of different Russian weapons, as the Iranian Armed Forces are in serious need of rearmament. Even in those segments where Iran produces its own counterparts, its products do not compete with Russian models for obvious reasons.
Tehran needs to replace almost everything. More than 300 fighters, about 120 transport aircraft, about 1000 tanks, submarines, and surface ships, helicopters, air defense, various artillery, BMP, BBM, and even trucks. In the Armed Forces of Iran a large re-sort and over the years accumulated a huge amount of morally and physically obsolete equipment.
There is a high probability that Iran will want to buy from Russia more than 100 Su-30SM fighters and 1000 T-90 tanks, as well as to modernize Su-24MK bombers, MiG-29 fighters, and T-72S OBT. Tehran will definitely be useful for the small diesel-electric submarines of project 636 “Warsawianka” and new frigates, air defense systems and training and combat aircraft Yak-130, Mi-8 and Mi-17 helicopters, coastal mobile missile systems “Bastion” with anti-ship missiles “Yakhont” and other weapons.
The Iranian market is very promising, so Russia has a chance to earn good money and support its economy. But everything will rest on Tehran’s financial capabilities.