The trade deal between China and the US is disrupted, the White House announced the rise from 10 May from 10% to 25% of tariff duties on Chinese goods in the amount of 200 billion dollars. In addition, foreign trade authorities are discussing another, a greatly expanded package of restrictions in the amount of another 350 billion green currency. Beijing, in turn, postponed the start of the next round of consultations with Washington for three days, until May 11. Only then will the main Chinese negotiator Liu he, Deputy Prime Minister of the State Council of China, arrive in our capital and will stay there only one day instead of the three planned, until May 12.
It is clear that the Chinese side made this decision in order to (a) avoid a situation in which Liu he would be in negotiations, and the increase in tariffs, however, will take place. China needs to avoid this kind of humiliation. And b) to see whether such an increase in tariffs will really take place on the 10th and if so, the arrival of the Deputy Prime Minister from Beijing, as well as the round of negotiations, will be completely canceled, which the Chinese side could not rule out. The ball is in the American half, and only Donald trump depends on the further development of the situation.
What happened? A number of us sympathizers and therefore “dissatisfied” with China Russian media, of course, liberal biased, hastened to lay the blame on Beijing, pointing to the correction of the draft bilateral trade agreement received in Washington from the Chinese capital.
“U.S. trade representative Robert Lightheiser and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, after reviewing the amendments of China, were amazed at the scale of changes to the draft agreement, — said with reference to Reuters known for its Pro-Western orientation of the newspaper “Vedomosti”. — According to these two officials from our administration, it was the edits from China that pushed trump to the decision to increase duties.
According to one source, in the last round of negotiations, “China has become greedy.” “China has abdicated a dozen things, if not more… the Talks went very badly, even surprising that Trump was outraged only on Sunday,”” so he explained the sudden change in the American position.
In this “stream of consciousness” voluntary (or interested?) lawyers of Washington, if we put aside emotions, the bottom line is the same: the alleged “failure” of Beijing from a series of seemingly coordinated negotiating positions. According to the Wall-Street Journal, the mouthpiece of the major financial and oligarchic circles of the United States, it is due to the attributed to China “confidence” in us compliance due to the “instability” of their economy and “readiness” therefore to “compromise”.
When such a solid by American and world standards, the newspaper begins to lead such, obviously implausible “arguments”, there is a reason to think. Imagine that “out of the blue” China began to rule the text, with which he had previously agreed, it is difficult. This is the handwriting of Washington, but not Beijing, and not Moscow and other interesting capitals. Rather, it was different: the inclusion in the agreed draft of certain provisions, which it did not contain, but which, according to the American version, “follow from it” and therefore were included “retroactively”.
What is it? Here it’s time to go back to the very beginning of the Sino-American consultations that provoked the trade war declared a year ago by Donald Trump. It was preceded by semi-secret negotiations, in which the American side presented China with an actual ultimatum on the following five points:
— reduce their tariffs to the level of the relevant us tariffs;
— remove restrictions on our investment in certain sectors of the Chinese economy;
— stop cyber attacks on the US;
— strengthen the protection of American intellectual property;
— eliminate state subsidies for high-tech enterprises.
The naked eye can see that the main items on this list – the second and fifth items, interconnected as communicating vessels – literally. Where one has departed, there another has arrived. If China refused state support for its own high-tech industries, this place would be taken by American investments.
In fact, this hidden prihvatizatsii “cream” best of the industry providing China’s leading position in the global technological competition, the Western, that is to say, “partners.” This is from an economic point of view. From a political point of view – it is also forcing Beijing to “dance” under the Washington “tune”, taking someone else’s, obviously losing the rules of the game.
Not to mention the CIA’s nose shoved into Chinese defense secrets. There is also an ideological aspect: the actual refusal in the case of the adoption of this ultimatum of the PRC from socialism with its priority of public investment in the interests of the country in favor of private-corporate capitalist interest, moreover, also external.
As soon as Beijing refused this ultimatum, tariff sanctions immediately arose then, in May 2018. They did not persuade Gorbachev to surrender the country and began to press, using the external orientation of the Chinese economy and the lack of development of the domestic market, which is being rebuilt in China, but slowly, lagging behind the dynamics of the twisting confrontation with Washington.
The hidden plan of the ruling circles of the United States was seen quite clearly and definitely: to cause a crisis of overproduction, undermining the economy, and then, against the backdrop of deteriorating living standards, to warm up and support the country’s destructive social protest, beating on the party and state foundations.
And here is how the expert community assesses the real, and not sucked from the finger of trump reasons for the current American “pirouette”, the responsibility for which, in full accordance with the accepted model of behavior in International Affairs, the Anglo-Saxons pass from a sick head to a healthy one.
“The United States has continued to have a stranglehold on other points that are as important to it as they are unacceptable to China. Speech (attention! – Auth.) on the practice of state subsidies for the leading “flagships” of the Chinese economy, which Washington demanded to stop.
It is extremely doubtful that Beijing would do this, and even under the current situation, under the pressure of the next threats. As well as the policy of “open doors”, which would mark a massive penetration into the domestic market of American investment, goods, and services”.
What does that mean? And the fact that the US, it turns out, voluntarily entered into the draft trade agreement sent to Beijing, initiated by the previous round of consultations, the two most challenging requirements for China, which were contained in last year’s ultimatum. This was clearly done in the hope of first provoking the Chinese side to reject the document and then accusing it of rewriting it. Which it did.
As in the case of D. trump’s “productive” negotiations with Xi Jinping in Buenos Aires, the White House does not really need to agree, but to disrupt the negotiations in order to ” tighten the screws “of confrontation under this brand. Then this was achieved by arresting the successor of the founder of Huawei in Vancouver, accusing the company of ties with Iran, today – the described method of fraud with a bilateral document. It’s like the bag of “white powder” given the uncooperative victim of police brutality, it’s “what they want to eat”, “grandfather Krylov”.
Ultimately, the US expects to “bend” the negotiating partner, softening it to the level of plasticine, that is, until it is ready to sign a surrender disguised as a “historic agreement”. That same Gorbachev in his time did not do?
And Kim Jong-un, at the end of February D. trump offered him what? It is surrender – with the dismantling of the nuclear missile shield and the transfer of its components to the United States, in the hands of a strategic enemy. To Kim’s credit, he, unlike Gorbachev, refused and interrupted the meeting with his American counterpart, putting forward to him later counter ultimatums, of course, for Trump is not just humiliating, but also fraught with domestic American consequences.
So there is no doubt who is to blame for the current imminent new round of the Sino-American trade war. The blame is the same as in the aggravation of the Russian-American military-political confrontation – the United States and its President trump, who, as is customary with the Anglo-Saxons, take for a “compromise” unilateral concessions of partners in the negotiations to the American side. And very much freaked out, lose their temper when partners refuse to “lay down their arms” and throw the “white flag”.
By the way, about military-political opposition. Just these days, amid the exchange of views between Washington and Beijing, Pyongyang also said its word, launching several short-range missiles in the direction of Japan. Perhaps it is just a coincidence, it may also be that the response to the us-South Korean maneuvers.
But since there are no isolated topics in global politics, but rather complex methods and approaches, it cannot be excluded that the us-South Korean exercises themselves, along with the economic undermining of China, were related parts of the overall plan. And in this case, Washington ran into a complex response and received it on the North Korean military-political and Chinese sanctions-economic front.
In this light, the recent call of Donald Trump to Vladimir Putin, the Vladivostok meeting of Russian and North Korean leaders, and the subsequent visit of the Russian President to Beijing and negotiations on the sidelines of the Belt and road forum with XI Jinping acquire a special shade. The clock was checked on time, the strategy was developed, and it is now successfully implemented.